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This is an excellent moment to buy Yens
Author Message
Jean Bounier
Member 		# Posted: 14 Jan 2009 19:42
Reply 

Hi Traders!

This is an excellent moment to buy Yens, the Japanese economy will be the first one of the seven nations group to recover from the big recession, the public policy had been moderated and efficient, the Japanese saving rate will return to its normal levels. The Yen will take force in relative terms with the Dollar.

Jean Bounier
Dealer
New York

__________________



TomAdmin
Admin 		# Posted: 16 Jan 2009 07:30
Reply 

Thanks for you comment Jean. I agee with you. In fact the Japanese Yen may be one of the 'mega' trades going forward.

Larry Pesavento, a trader whom I have great respect for is saying that the Yen is setting up to be a superb long term trade to the upside going forward.

Yen looks like it still needs to make a very large double bottom near the 83 level however.

Lets see how it sets up.

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http://www.Bestonlinetrades.com
Jean Bounier
Member 		# Posted: 16 Jan 2009 20:32
Reply 

Hi Tom,

Thanks for your answer, it seems, you are familiar with traders. I´m working in an econometric model to predict FX prices, is a hard work because the prices are naturally a Random Walk, but with a pseudo forecasting technique we could reduce the error level.

What do you think about our idea?
Jean Bounier
Dealer
New York

__________________


TomAdmin
Admin 		# Posted: 17 Jan 2009 19:28
Reply 

Well it certainly sounds like an interesting idea you have. I think everything is worth a try at least once or twice in any type of market. When you say model it sounds like you are trying to come up with an automated system that is reliable over time.

I have been looking at some of the systems over at collective2.com. They seem to have many.

I guess I am not familiar enough with trading systems to know or not how reliable they are over very long periods of time.

And that is my greatest fear, is that they perform perfectly in a major bull market, but then fail in a major bear market.

I would love to hear of a system that is able to succeed in both major bull and bear market in a security.

But anyway good luck on your project.

Maybe you could model it over at collective2.com and then see if you can get subscribers based on the systems performance.

__________________
http://www.Bestonlinetrades.com
Jean Bounier
Member 		# Posted: 21 Jan 2009 18:22
Reply 

Hi Tom:
The model will be constructed over the assumption of heterocedasticity, I mean if it works with bull markets, It will have the same probability to work with bear markets.
Thanks for your feedback!
Jean Bounier
Dealer
New York

__________________


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